Elon Musk is using the latest SpaceX valuation chatter to reset the narrative: the company is not doing an $800‑billion primary fundraise, it is comfortably cash‑flow positive, and its real growth engine is commercial Starlink, not NASA contracts.
What the reports said about an $800B valuation
Multiple outlets reported this week that SpaceX is preparing a secondary share sale (tender offer) that could value the company at up to $800 billion:
- The Wall Street Journal said SpaceX was in talks to sell insider shares at a valuation “as high as $800 billion,” roughly double the ~$400 billion mark from its last secondary sale, and that executives were also discussing a possible 2026 IPO.
- Bloomberg and others framed it as an insider liquidity event that would make SpaceX the world’s most valuable private company, ahead of OpenAI’s roughly $500‑billion mark.
- Reuters and other wires echoed that SpaceX had told investors it was eyeing a late‑2026 public listing after this tender.
Musk’s post pushes back on this framing: he says the company is not “raising money at $800B”, only doing its regular twice‑a‑year stock buybacks / secondary sales to provide liquidity for employees and early investors. In other words, it’s an internal price discovery exercise, not a cash‑in financing round.
SpaceX’s financial picture right now
Even though SpaceX is private, enough leaks and investor decks have surfaced to sketch its current economics:
- Musk has said SpaceX is on track for about $15.5 billion in revenue in 2025, up from an estimated $13.1–14.2 billion in 2024, implying ~15–20% top‑line growth.
- Independent estimates suggest revenue grew from $8.7 billion in 2023 to $14.2 billion in 2024 (63% growth), with Starlink overtaking launch as the largest contributor.
- Consulting firm Quilty Space and other analysts project Starlink alone to generate $11.8–12.3 billion of revenue in 2025, with around 8–8.5 million subscribers and EBITDA‑positive, cash‑flow‑positive operations.
- Musk has publicly stated that SpaceX has been cash‑flow positive for years, something consistent with Starlink’s rapid scaling and Falcon 9’s dominant share of the commercial launch market (~70–75%).
Musk’s new post adds a fresh data point: NASA will account for less than 5% of SpaceX’s revenue next year, with “commercial Starlink” by far the largest single contributor. That aligns with earlier forecasts that Starlink’s consumer, enterprise and government connectivity revenues will far exceed traditional launch contracts and NASA program payments.
Why Musk is talking about subsidies and NASA
Some critics and politicians have argued that SpaceX is effectively “subsidised” by NASA and the US government because of multibillion‑dollar contracts for Commercial Crew, cargo, Artemis lunar lander work and national‑security launches. Musk is trying to knock down that storyline on two fronts:
- Revenue mix: By pointing out NASA will be <5% of revenue, he is arguing that even if NASA contracts disappeared tomorrow, the business would still be overwhelmingly driven by commercial customers—Starlink users, private satellite launches, enterprise and government telecom deals.
- Competitive tenders, not subsidies: He stresses that SpaceX won NASA work by offering “the best product at the lowest price”, and that Crew Dragon is currently the only spacecraft that meets NASA’s human‑rating standards for US astronaut transport. In other words, NASA is a demanding customer, not a charity, and the relationship has forced SpaceX to be cheaper and safer than legacy aerospace, not rely on open‑ended support.
This framing matters politically and for an eventual IPO: it reassures investors that SpaceX is not a fragile government‑contractor story but a diversified, commercially anchored space‑and‑connectivity platform.
There has been a lot of press claiming @SpaceX is raising money at $800B, which is not accurate.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 6, 2025
SpaceX has been cash flow positive for many years and does periodic stock buybacks twice a year to provide liquidity for employees and investors.
Valuation increments are a…
How valuation ties to Starship, Starlink and spectrum
Musk also explains how SpaceX thinks about valuation “increments”:
- Starship progress: Each successful test flight and step toward full reusability increases the addressable market in heavy‑lift launch (deep‑space missions, large constellations, lunar and Mars cargo), and could structurally lower cost per kilogram to orbit. That future cash‑flow potential is a big chunk of the premium investors are willing to pay.
- Starlink scaling: As Starlink’s subscriber base, ARPU, and enterprise/government contracts grow—and as it moves into aviation, maritime, mobility and defence—the business looks more like a global telco and cloud edge‑network than just a “side project.”
- Direct‑to‑cell spectrum: Musk specifically cites securing global direct‑to‑cell spectrum as a driver of addressable‑market expansion. Direct‑to‑cell turns Starlink satellites into orbital cell towers that talk directly to normal phones, potentially tapping into parts of the $1‑trillion mobile market with partners like T‑Mobile and others. As those deals and spectrum rights firm up, investors can model far larger revenue streams.
In that context, a notional $800‑billion “print” in a secondary sale isn’t about near‑term profits; it’s a bet on SpaceX owning the dominant launch stack plus a global broadband and direct‑to‑cell network—an infrastructure play closer to a combined telecom, satellite and defence giant.
Why this episode matters
The funding‑rumour flap and Musk’s response signal a few important things:
- IPO is getting closer: Multiple reports say SpaceX is now openly talking to investors about a late‑2026 IPO, likely either in Starlink, SpaceX as a whole, or some hybrid structure.
- Employee liquidity remains a priority: Regular tender offers and buybacks are Musk’s way of keeping staff and early backers liquid without rushing into public markets—important for retention in a company competing with Big Tech.
- Narrative control ahead of listing: By rejecting the idea that SpaceX is “NASA‑subsidised” and by highlighting Starlink’s dominance in the revenue mix, Musk is clearly shaping the story investors will hear if and when a prospectus is filed: a cash‑generative, commercially driven infrastructure company, not a government‑dependent contractor or a cash‑burning moonshot.
In short, the $800‑billion headlines may be imprecise, but they underscore how central Starlink and Starship have become to SpaceX’s value—and why Musk is determined to be seen as winning open, competitive markets rather than living off subsidies.
Read this: Netflix Lost Over $15 Billion Due to Elon Musk? What is the Controversy
